Monday, 12 October 2026. GIFT Nifty was 22,626.50 at 8:05 AM IST, 20.5 points above its 3:30 PM level of 22,606 on Friday (up 0.09%). Oil moved more: Brent was down 1.73% at $102.91 a barrel after President Donald Trump said on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacking each other's energy facilities. Friday's session, when the Nifty rose 1.30%, is in the post-market report for 9 October.
Trump announces an energy ceasefire; Kyiv says it was not told
Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday that an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine was in force with immediate effect and that both sides had agreed to it, NBC News reported. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Axios he had not been informed of any such agreement, and added that Ukraine would agree if Russia did. NBC News said there was no immediate confirmation from Moscow. Investing.com noted that Trump made a similar announcement in mid-September that neither side confirmed.
Investing.com had December Brent 1.2% lower at $103.49 early on Monday and linked the fall to the announcement. By about 8:10 AM IST Trading Economics showed Brent at $102.91 and WTI at $90.05.
Investing.com said tension in the Gulf limited the fall. Trading Economics reported a Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia's main airport that killed 12 people and injured more than 300, and a drone strike on a tanker near Oman's Sohar anchorage, just outside the Strait of Hormuz.
The Russian diesel deal that came first
The ceasefire claim followed a deal Trump announced on Friday, under which Russia is to supply diesel to the world market. Al Jazeera listed the volumes: more than 300,000 tonnes immediately, 500,000 tonnes in November, 1 million tonnes after that, and a further 3 million tonnes depending on refinery capacity. The US Treasury issued a temporary general licence to permit the sales despite sanctions.
Investing.com described the deal as aimed at lowering pump prices. Al Jazeera put the national average at $6.20 a gallon, after a record $6.52 in September.
Where prices stood this morning
| Market | Latest | Change | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| GIFT Nifty | 22,626.50 | +20.5 pts (+0.09%) vs 22,606 at 3:30 PM on 9 Oct | 8:05 AM IST |
| Brent crude | $102.91 a barrel | −1.73% | about 8:10 AM IST |
| WTI crude | $90.05 a barrel | −1.96% | about 8:10 AM IST |
| US 10-year yield | 5.24% | little changed | Friday |
| Dow Jones | 51,654.95 | +423.31 pts (+0.8%) | Friday's close |
| S&P 500 | 7,811.54 | +46.18 pts (+0.6%) | Friday's close |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,366.17 | +172.83 pts (+0.6%) | Friday's close |
GIFT Nifty is a futures contract, so it does not compare directly with the Nifty 50; at 8:05 AM it was 106.05 points above the Nifty's Friday close of 22,520.45. (How far GIFT Nifty can be relied on.) I could not open a report with Asian index figures this morning, so Asia is not in the table.
Wall Street ended the week higher
All three US indexes rose on Friday. Trading Economics attributed the gains to a rally in technology shares that offset worries about higher oil prices and bond yields. Over the week the S&P 500 gained 1.2%, the Dow 0.9% and the Nasdaq 0.6%, according to the agency tally carried by La Nación. Oil rose on Friday too: Outlook Money had Brent up 0.42% at $104.70 and WTI up 0.39% at $91.85. Large US banks report results this week and US inflation data is due on Wednesday.
Friday at home: FII selling shrank, the rupee gained 17 paise
| Market | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 22,520.45 | +288.65 pts (+1.30%) |
| Sensex | 72,472.33 | +879.09 pts (+1.23%) |
| Bank Nifty | 55,256.65 | +741.60 pts (+1.36%) |
| India VIX | 14.38 | −0.90 (−5.89%) |
| USD/INR | 96.71 | rupee up 17 paise |
Index figures are from Zerodha Kite market data. (What India VIX measures.)
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers of ₹3,568.90 crore in the cash market on Friday (gross purchases ₹10,374.00 crore, sales ₹13,942.90 crore), according to 5paisa, which publishes NSE's provisional data. That is smaller than the ₹12,943.60 crore they sold on Thursday and the ₹6,121.40 crore on Wednesday. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of ₹4,743.30 crore. (How to read FII and DII data.)
The rupee closed at 96.71 to the dollar against 96.88 on Thursday, after trading between 96.51 and 96.77, PTI reported in a story carried by ThePrint. The same report said India's foreign exchange reserves fell by $12.952 billion to $734.606 billion in the week ended 2 October.
Today and the rest of the week
- Monday, 12 October: September CPI inflation is due, and HCLTech reports its September-quarter results. There is no NSE expiry today.
- Tuesday, 13 October: NSE weekly expiry. This month's monthly expiry is on Tuesday, 27 October.
- Wednesday, 14 October: September WPI inflation; US core CPI; record date for the TCS dividend.
- Saturday, 17 October: HDFC Bank and Axis Bank results.
- Tuesday, 20 October: NSE trading holiday.
- Friday, 23 October: Infosys results.
Outlook Money also lists Hero MotoCorp, Tech Mahindra, Wipro and Nestle India as reporting this week, without dates. I have not checked today's IPO listings, so none are listed here.
Three numbers I will look at before the open
- GIFT Nifty at 9:00 against the 22,626.50 in this note.
- Brent against $102.91, and whether Moscow has said anything about the ceasefire.
- The rupee's first quote after Friday's 96.71 close.
Sources
- GIFT Nifty, Indian index closes and India VIX: Zerodha Kite market data
- Ceasefire announcement and Zelenskyy's response: NBC News
- Early Monday oil and the September announcement: Investing.com
- Brent, Saudi airport attack and tanker strike: Trading Economics; WTI: Trading Economics
- Russian diesel deal and US diesel prices: Al Jazeera
- US index closes and weekly changes: La Nación; reasons: Trading Economics
- US 10-year yield: Trading Economics
- Friday's oil prices, inflation release dates and this week's results: Outlook Money
- Rupee close and foreign exchange reserves: ThePrint (PTI)
- FII and DII flows: NSE provisional data via 5paisa
- Results dates: Kotak Neo; TCS record date: Upstox
- Holidays and expiry: NSE holiday list and expiry rules
This note summarises public news and data for information only. It is a record of events and numbers, not a view on where the market goes next: I don't publish levels, targets or trade ideas. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I am not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst.