Monday, 12 October 2026. The Nifty fell 157.10 points (0.70%) to 22,363.35, giving back just over half of Friday's 288.65-point gain, and PTI's closing report tied the fall to a rise in the 10-year government bond yield to a three-year high. The index opened higher, made its high of the day in the first 15 minutes and its low in the last half hour. Two scheduled releases came after the close: September inflation at 5.54%, and HCLTech's results.
Bond yields at a three-year high
PTI's closing report linked the fall to four things: a rise in the 10-year bond yield, concern about further rate increases, crude oil and foreign fund outflows. It quoted Vinod Nair of Geojit Investments as saying the market failed to hold its early gains as the 10-year yield rose, and it noted that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has raised the daily cash reserve ratio maintenance requirement for banks.
Business Today had the 10-year yield at 7.38% at 2:44 PM, up 8 basis points on the day. On 7 July it was 6.69%. The RBI raised its repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% on 7 October.
Bank Nifty lost 0.61% and Nifty Financial Services 0.41%, both a little less than the Nifty. Nifty PSU Bank fell more, by 1.18%.
IANS gave a different emphasis: tension in the Middle East, including Houthi attacks on Saudi and regional energy infrastructure, and foreign selling in large-cap stocks. South Korea's Kospi fell 3.65%, PTI reported.
The rupee gained about 93 paise; Brent rose through the day
The rupee closed at 95.78 to the dollar on provisional figures, PTI reported, against 96.71 on Friday. It had opened at 95.61 and was at 95.80 at 2 PM.
PTI attributed the gain to measures the RBI announced on Saturday, 10 October. They include a dedicated dollar window for oil marketing companies, a cut in the exposure threshold for foreign exchange derivative transactions to USD 5 million from USD 100 million, and a requirement to hold 20% in cash against certain hedging contracts above USD 2 million.
Brent was $102.91 a barrel when I wrote this morning's pre-market report. Business Today had it near $104, down 0.5%, in the afternoon, and by the evening PTI had it at $105.8, up 1.14%.
The closing numbers
| Market | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 22,363.35 | −157.10 pts (−0.70%) |
| Sensex | 71,924.68 | −547.65 pts (−0.76%) |
| Bank Nifty | 54,918.00 | −338.65 pts (−0.61%) |
| Nifty Midcap 100 | 58,834.55 | +47.25 pts (+0.08%) |
| Nifty Smallcap 100 | 19,425.80 | +272.10 pts (+1.42%) |
| India VIX | 15.25 | +0.87 (+6.05%) |
The Smallcap 100 rose 1.42% on a day the Nifty fell 0.70%. India VIX traded between 13.14 and 15.54 and closed at 15.25, up from 14.38. (What India VIX measures.)
A high in the first candle, a low in the last half hour
The Nifty opened at 22,593.20, which was 72.75 points above Friday's close of 22,520.45. It touched 22,651.10 in the first 15-minute candle, and that was the high of the day. Within ten minutes it had also dipped below Friday's close, to 22,512.00, before that candle closed at 22,581.80.
The index then fell through the morning. The 11:00 to 11:15 AM candle closed at 22,389.90, the first 15-minute close below 22,400. Between 11:15 AM and 2:00 PM it stayed inside a 58.95-point band, from 22,352.35 to 22,411.30.
It slipped again after 2:00 PM and made the day's low of 22,304.45 in the 3:00 to 3:15 PM candle. The close of 22,363.35 was 58.90 points above that low, 229.85 points below the open and 287.75 points below the high. The day's range was 346.65 points. (When the Nifty usually makes its high and low.)
The Sensex opened at 72,771.32, rose to 72,884.25 and fell as low as 71,676.10, which was 796.23 points below Friday's close, before ending at 71,924.68. Bank Nifty traded between 54,708.80 and 55,416.45.
FMCG gave back most of Friday's gain; Media rose 4.60%
| Nifty index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Media | 1,624.80 | +4.60% |
| Auto | 25,084.40 | +0.90% |
| Realty | 810.05 | +0.76% |
| Pharma | 26,078.85 | +0.45% |
| Energy | 35,857.15 | +0.20% |
| Financial Services | 24,866.35 | −0.41% |
| Metal | 11,951.15 | −0.41% |
| IT | 28,349.60 | −0.79% |
| PSU Bank | 8,030.65 | −1.18% |
| FMCG | 44,113.40 | −1.67% |
Nifty FMCG rose 2.20% on Friday and fell 1.67% today. ITC, which gained 4.31% on Friday, fell 3.05% to ₹257.90, and Hindustan Unilever fell 1.94% to ₹1,820.70. I have not found a reported reason for the 4.60% rise in Nifty Media; IANS listed it as the top sector gainer without one.
Of the 50 Nifty stocks, 36 fell, 13 rose and Sun Pharma closed unchanged at ₹1,760.
| Fell | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Apollo Hospitals | ₹7,775.00 | −3.15% |
| ITC | ₹257.90 | −3.05% |
| Tech Mahindra | ₹1,471.00 | −2.85% |
| Larsen & Toubro | ₹3,627.50 | −2.05% |
| Max Healthcare | ₹865.95 | −2.02% |
| Hindalco | ₹882.50 | −1.98% |
| Rose | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Dr Reddy's | ₹1,229.40 | +2.71% |
| Bajaj Auto | ₹10,034.00 | +2.62% |
| Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles | ₹284.45 | +1.63% |
| Bharat Electronics | ₹373.90 | +1.56% |
| BSE | ₹3,330.20 | +1.31% |
Apollo Hospitals was Friday's biggest Nifty gainer at 4.72% and today's biggest loser. Max Healthcare fell too, and PTI put the BSE hospitals index down 2.04%.
Tech Mahindra fell as much as 4.73% to ₹1,442.50 before closing at ₹1,471. Upstox linked the fall to Friday's drop in US telecom stocks after SpaceX agreed to buy 800 MHz wireless spectrum: T-Mobile US fell 13.2%, and AT&T and Verizon about 10% each. Communications clients account for about one-third of Tech Mahindra's revenue, and the company reports its September-quarter results on Thursday. TCS fell 1.44% to ₹2,125 and State Bank of India 1.89% to ₹941. These are NSE closing prices.
After the close: inflation at 5.54%
Retail inflation rose to 5.54% in September from 4.83% in August, according to data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation published after trading ended. A Reuters poll had forecast 5.4%.
| CPI inflation | August | September |
|---|---|---|
| All India | 4.83% | 5.54% |
| Food | 5.97% | 7.74% |
| Rural | 5.24% | 6.08% |
| Urban | 4.31% | 4.88% |
The RBI's target is 4%, with a tolerance band of 2% to 6%. Today's session closed before the number came out.
After the close: HCLTech's profit rose 21.18%
HCLTech reported a September-quarter net profit of ₹5,132 crore, against ₹4,235 crore a year earlier, Business Today reported. It put revenue at ₹35,620 crore against ₹31,942 crore, a rise it gave as 11.52%, and the EBIT margin at 18.2%. Deal wins in the quarter were $3,258 million.
For the year to March 2027 the company guided for revenue growth of 2.5% to 4% in constant currency, 3% to 4% for services, with an EBIT margin of 17.5% to 18.5%. It declared an interim dividend of ₹12 a share, with a record date of 16 October and payment on 26 October.
The stock closed at ₹1,223, up 0.52%, before the results were out. TCS reported last week; that is in the 9 October post-market report.
Foreign institutions sold ₹1,708.50 crore, less than half of Friday's figure
Foreign institutions were net sellers of ₹1,708.50 crore in the cash market today, on purchases of ₹12,583.20 crore and sales of ₹14,291.70 crore. Domestic institutions were net buyers of ₹3,045.00 crore. On Friday the figures were ₹3,568.90 crore of foreign selling and ₹4,743.30 crore of domestic buying. These are provisional exchange figures, added to this report at 10:15 PM. (How to read FII and DII data.)
The rest of the week
- Tuesday, 13 October: NSE weekly expiry.
- Wednesday, 14 October: September WPI inflation; US inflation data; record date for the TCS dividend.
- Thursday, 15 October: Tech Mahindra's September-quarter results.
- Friday, 16 October: record date for the HCLTech dividend.
- Saturday, 17 October: HDFC Bank and Axis Bank results.
- Tuesday, 20 October: NSE trading holiday.
- Friday, 23 October: Infosys results.
Sources
- Index, sector and stock prices, intraday path and India VIX: Zerodha Kite market data (NSE and BSE)
- Reasons for the fall, cash reserve ratio change, rupee close, Brent, Kospi and BSE hospitals index: ThePrint (PTI)
- Middle East tension and sector gainers: Telangana Today (IANS)
- 10-year bond yield, repo rate and afternoon Brent: Business Today
- Rupee during the day and the RBI's measures: HDFC Sky (PTI); morning Brent: Trading Economics
- September inflation: Business Today; poll forecast and RBI target: Reuters via Investing.com
- HCLTech results: Business Today
- Tech Mahindra: Upstox; top movers cross-checked with Upstox
- FII and DII flows: NSE provisional data via 5paisa
- Calendar: Outlook Money, Kotak Neo, NSE holiday list
This note summarises public news and data for information only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and I don't publish levels, targets or trade ideas. I am not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst.